Polar bears ee Svalbard: khuraafaadka iyo xaqiiqada

Imisa orso ayaa ku taal Svalbard? Markaad ka jawaabto su'aashan, cabbirrada kala duwan ayaa laga heli karaa internetka in akhristuhu uu dawakhsan yahay: 300 polar bears, 1000 polar bears iyo 2600 polar bears - wax kasta oo u muuqda inay suurtogal tahay. Inta badan waxaa la sheegaa in ay jiraan 3000 oo orso polar ah oo ku yaal Spitsbergen. Shirkad dalxiis oo caan ah ayaa qortay: "Sida laga soo xigtay machadka Polar Norway, dadka reer Svalbard ee orsoleyda hadda waa 3500 oo xayawaan ah."

Qaladaadka taxadar la'aanta ah, khaladaadka tarjumaada, fikirka hammiga ah iyo nasiib darada weli baahsan ee koobi-iyo-ku dhajinta waxay u badan tahay inay yihiin sababta qaskan. Odhaahyada cajiibka ah waxay la kulmaan xaashida dheelitirka miyir-qabka.

Khuraafaad kastaa wuxuu ka kooban yahay hadhuudh run ah, laakiin tirokee ayaa sax ah? Halkan waxaad ka ogaan kartaa sababta khuraafaadka ugu caansan aysan run u ahayn iyo inta jeer ee orso polar ee runtii ku yaal Svalbard.

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Khayaaliga 1: Waxaa jira orso polar ka badan dadka Svalbard

In kastoo bayaankan si joogto ah loogu akhriyi karo onlayn, haddana sax maaha. Inkasta oo inta badan jasiiradaha Svalbard ay yihiin kuwo aan la degganayn, sidaas oo kale jasiirado yaryar oo badan ayaa dhab ahaantii iyo caqli ahaanba ka badan oo orso ah marka loo eego dadka deggan, tani ma khusayso jasiiradda weyn ee Svalbard ama dhammaan jasiiradaha.

Qiyaastii 2500 ilaa 3000 oo qof ayaa ku nool jasiiradda Spitsbergen. Intooda badan waxay ku nool yihiin Longyearbyen, magaalada loogu yeero waqooyi ee adduunka. Tirakoobyada Norway ayaa siiya dadka deggan Svalbard kowda Janaayo 2021: Sida ku cad, degsiimooyinka Svalbard ee Longyearbyen, Ny-Alesund, Barentsburg iyo Pyramiden waxay wada lahaayeen 2.859 qof.

Jooji Miyayna jirin orso ka badan dadka Spitsbergen? Haddii aad is weydiinayso su'aashan, markaas waxaad u badan tahay inaad maqashay ama akhriday in ku dhawaad ​​3000 oo orso polar ah ay ku nool yihiin Svalbard. Haddii ay taasi ahaan lahayd, dabcan waad saxan lahayd, laakiin taasi sidoo kale waa khuraafaad.

Helitaanka: Ma jiraan orso polar ka badan dadka ku nool Svalbard.

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Khayaaliga 2: Waxaa Svalbard ku yaal 3000 oo orso ah

Tiradani way sii socotaa. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qof kasta oo u fiirsada daabacaadaha sayniska si dhakhso ah ayuu u ogaanayaa in tani ay tahay qalad erayeed. Tirada ku dhawaad ​​3000 oo orso ah ayaa quseysa dhammaan aagga badda Barents, ma ahan jasiiradaha Svalbard, mana ahan kaliya jasiiradda weyn ee Spitsbergen.

hoos ku Ursus maritimus (qiimaynta Yurub) ee Liiska Cas ee IUCN ee noocyada halista ah waa la akhriyi karaa, tusaale ahaan: “ Yurub dhexdeeda, tirada hoose ee Badda Barents (Norway iyo Federaalka Ruushka) waxaa lagu qiyaasaa ku dhawaad ​​3.000 oo qof."

Badda Barents waa badda yar ee Badweynta Arctic. Aagga Badda Barents waxaa ku jira ma aha oo kaliya Spitsbergen, inta kale ee Svalbard Archipelago iyo gobolka baraf ee waqooyiga Spitsbergen, laakiin sidoo kale Franz Joseph Land iyo gobollada baraf ee Ruushka. Beeruhu waxay marmar u haajiraan baraf xidhmada, laakiin mar kasta oo fogaantu sii korodho, way yaraanaysaa wax kala beddelashadu. U wareejinta dhammaan dadka orsada dabaasha badda ee Barents 1:1 ee Svalbard waa khalad.

Helitaanka: Waxaa jira ku dhawaad ​​3000 oo bears polar aagga Badda Barents.

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Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Tirooyinka: Immisa orso ayaa ku sugan Svalbard?

Dhab ahaantii, kaliya ilaa 300 oo orso ah ayaa ku nool gudaha xudduudaha jasiiradaha Svalbard, qiyaastii boqolkiiba toban ka mid ah inta badan 3000 oo orso ah. Kuwaani dhammaantood kuma noola jasiiradda ugu weyn ee Spitsbergen, laakiin waxay ku baahsan yihiin jasiirado badan oo jasiiradaha ku yaal. Markaa waxaa Svalbard aad uga yar orsoleyda marka loo eego mareegaha qaar ee aad rumaysan lahayd. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, dalxiisayaashu waxay leeyihiin fursado aad u wanaagsan Ku daawashada orso polar ee Svalbard.

Helitaanka: Waxaa jira ku dhawaad ​​300 oo orso ah oo ku yaal jasiiradaha Svalbard, oo ay ku jirto jasiiradda ugu weyn ee Spitsbergen.

Marka laga soo tago ku dhawaad ​​300 oo orso oo polar ah oo ku dhex jira xudduudaha Svalbard, waxa kale oo jira orso polar ee gobolka baraf ee woqooyiga Svalbard. Tirada orso-dabiiciga ah ee ku jirta barafyada waqooyi waxa lagu qiyaasaa ku dhawaad ​​700 oo orso. Haddii aad ku darto labada qiyamka wadajirka ah, waxay noqon doontaa mid la fahmi karo sababta ilaha qaar ay u bixiyaan tirada 1000 ee orso ee Svalbard.

Helitaanka: Ku dhawaad ​​1000 orso polar ah ayaa ku nool gobolka agagaarka Spitsbergen (Svalbard + baraf woqooyiga).

Kuma filna adiga? Anaga midna maaha. Qaybta soo socota waxaad ku ogaan doontaa sida saxda ah inta jeer ee orso polar ee ku yaal Svalbard iyo Barents Sea sida ku cad daabacaadaha sayniska.

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Xaqiiqooyinka: Immisa orso polar ayaa ku nool Svalbard?

Waxaa jiray laba tirinta orso-dabiiciga ah oo ballaaran gudaha Svalbard 2004 iyo 2015: mid walba laga bilaabo Agoosto 01st ilaa Agoosto 31st. Labadii sano ee la soo dhaafay, jasiiradaha Svalbard Islands iyo gobolka baraf ee woqooyiga waxaa lagu baaray markab iyo helikobtar.

Tirakoobkii 2015 wuxuu muujiyay in 264 orso polar ay ku nool yihiin Svalbard. Si kastaba ha noqotee, si aad si sax ah u fahamto lambarkan, waxaad u baahan tahay inaad ogaato sida saynisyahanadu isu muujiyaan. Haddii aad akhrido daabacaadda la xidhiidha, waxay odhanaysaa "264 (95% CI = 199 - 363) orso". Tani waxay ka dhigan tahay in lambarka 264, ee u dhawaaqa si sax ah, aanu ahayn shax sax ah, laakiin celceliska qiyaasta qiyaasta 95% ay tahay mid sax ah.

Helitaanka: Bishii Agoosto 2015, si cilmiyaysan si sax ah loo dhigo, waxaa jiray suurtogalnimada boqolkiiba 95 in ay jiraan inta u dhaxaysa 199 iyo 363 orso polar gudaha xuduudaha Svalbard Archipelago. Celcelis ahaan Svalbard waa 264 orso.

Waa kuwan xaqiiqooyinka. Ma helayso wax ka saxsan taas. Isla sidaas oo kale ayaa khuseeysa orso dacallada ee baraf xirmada woqooyi. Celceliska 709 orso polar ayaa la daabacay. Haddii aad eegto macluumaadka buuxa ee daabacaadda sayniska, tirada dhabta ah waxay u egtahay isbeddel yar.

Helitaanka: Bishii Agoosto 2015, oo leh suurtogalnimada boqolkiiba 95, waxaa jiray inta u dhaxaysa 533 iyo 1389 orso polar ee gobolka oo dhan agagaarka Spitsbergen (Svalbard + gobolka baraf waqooyiga). Natiijadii celceliska ahayd wadar ahaan 973 orso polar.

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Xaqiiqooyinka: Imisa orso oo dacalla ah ayaa ku jira Badda Barents?

Sannadkii 2004tii, tirinta orsada dabaysha ayaa la balaariyay oo lagu daray Franz Josef Land iyo baraf Ruush ah oo lagu daray Svalbard. Tani waxay suurtogal ka dhigtay in la qiyaaso wadarta guud ee bears polar ee ku nool Badda Barents. Nasiib darro, mas'uuliyiinta Ruushku ma aysan ogolaan ogolaanshaha 2015, sidaas darteed qaybta Ruushka ee aagga qaybinta dib looma baari karo.

Xogtii ugu dambeysay ee ku saabsan dhammaan tirada dadka ku nool badda Barents waxay ka timid 2004: celceliska la daabacay waa 2644 orso polar.

Helitaanka: Iyada oo 95 boqolkiiba suurtogal ah, tirada hoose ee Badda Barents ee Agoosto 2004 waxay ka kooban tahay inta u dhaxaysa 1899 iyo 3592 orso polar. Celceliska 2644 orso polar ee Badda Barents ayaa la bixiyaa.

Hadda way caddahay halka ay ka yimaadeen tirooyinka sare ee Svalbard ee ku wareegaya internetka. Sidaan horayba u soo sheegnay, qaar ka mid ah qorayaasha ayaa si khaldan sawirka badda Barents ugu wareejiyay Svalbard 1:1. Intaa waxaa dheer, celceliska ku dhawaad ​​​​2600 orso polar ayaa inta badan si deeqsinimo ah lagu soo koobay 3000 oo xayawaan ah. Mararka qaarkood xitaa tirada ugu badan ee qiyaasta badda Barents (3592 orso polar) ayaa la bixiyaa, si lama filaan ah 3500 ama 3600 oo orso ah oo cirif ah ayaa lagu xusay Svalbard.

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Immisa orso ayaa jira adduunka?

Si arrinta oo dhan loo caddeeyo, xaaladda xogta dadka orsada polar-ka ee adduunka oo dhan waa in si kooban loo xuso. Marka hore, waxaa xiiso leh in la ogaado in ay jiraan 19-dabeecadood polar bear adduunka oo dhan. Mid ka mid ah ayaa ku nool agagaarka badda Barents, oo ay ku jirto Spitsbergen.

hoos ku Ursus maritimus Liiska cas ee IUCN ee noocyada halista ah 2015 Waxaa qoran: "Iyadoo la soo koobay qiyaasihii ugu dambeeyay ee 19-ka dad-hoosaadyada [...] natiijooyinka wadar ahaan qiyaastii 26.000 orso polar (95% CI = 22.000 -31.000)."

Waxa halkan loo malaynayaa in ay jiraan wadar ahaan inta u dhaxaysa 22.000 iyo 31.000 orso polar ee dhulka. Celcelis ahaan dadka adduunku waa 26.000 oo orso ah. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, bulshooyin hoosaadyada qaar xaaladda xogtu way liidataa, tirada hoose ee Dooxada Arctic lama diiwaangelin gabi ahaanba. Sababtan awgeed, tirada waa in loo fahmaa qiyaas aad u qallafsan.

Helitaanka: Waxaa jira 19 dad-hoosaadyo orso-polar ah oo adduunka oo dhan ah. Waxaa jira xog yar oo loo heli karo dad hoosaadyada qaarkood. Iyada oo ku saleysan xogta la hayo, waxaa lagu qiyaasaa in ay jiraan ku dhawaad ​​22.000 ilaa 31.000 orso polar adduunka oo dhan.

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Aragtida: Svalbard ma ka yar yihiin orso cidhifyada ah marka loo eego sidii hore?

Sababo la xiriira ugaarsiga culus ee qarniyadii 19-aad iyo 20-aad, dadka orso-beelka ah ee Svalbard ayaa markii hore aad hoos u dhacay. Waxay ahayd ilaa 1973 in Heshiiska Ilaalinta ee Bears Polar la saxiixay. Wixii markaas ka dambeeyay, bahasha cirifka ayaa laga ilaalin jiray meelaha Norway. Dadku si weyn ayay u soo kabsadeen oo u koreen, gaar ahaan ilaa 1980-aadkii. Sababtan awgeed, maanta Svalbard waxaa jira xitaa ka badan oo orso.

Helitaanka: Bahasha cidlada ah ayaan loo oggolayn in laga ugaarsado deegaannada Norway tan iyo 1973-kii. Taasi waa sababta ay dadku u soo kabteen oo hadda Svalbard ay ka badan yihiin orso polar-ka marka loo eego sidii hore.

Haddii aad is barbardhigto natiijooyinka dadka orsoleyda ah ee Svalbard ee 2004 iyo 2015, tiradu waxay sidoo kale u muuqataa inay kor u kacday muddadan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, kororku ma ahayn mid muhiim ah.

Hadda waxaa jirta cabsi laga qabo in dadka ku nool Svalbard ay mar kale hoos u dhacaan. Cadawga cusubi waa kulaylka caalamiga ah. Barents Sea polar bears ayaa la kulma luminta ugu dhaqsaha badan ee deegaanka barafka badda ee dhammaan 19-ka hoose ee la aqoonsan yahay ee Arctic (Laidre et al. 2015; Stern & Laidre 2016). Nasiib wanaag, intii lagu jiray tirakoobkii Agoosto 2015 ma jirin wax caddayn ah oo muujinaya in tani ay mar hore keentay hoos u dhaca tirada dadka.

Natiijooyinka: Waa la arki doonaa haddii ama goorta tirada orso ee Svalbard ay yaraan doonto sababtoo ah kulaylka caalamiga ah. Waxaa la og yahay in barafka baddu uu si xawli ah hoos ugu sii dhacayo badda Barents, laakiin 2015 wax dhimis ah laguma helin tirooyinka orso-beelka.

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Kala duwanaansho: Maxay xogtu u noqon wayday mid sax ah?

Dhab ahaantii, tirinta orso darafku sidaas uma fududa. Waa maxay sababtu? Dhinaca kale, waa inaadan waligaa iloobin in orso polar ay yihiin ugaarsato cajiib ah oo sidoo kale weeraraya dadka. Taxaddar gaar ah iyo fogaan deeqsinimo ah ayaa had iyo jeer loo baahan yahay. Isku soo wada duuboo, orso-dabixeedka si fiican ayaa loo qurxiyay oo aaggu aad buu u weyn yahay, inta badan jahawareer iyo mararka qaarkood way adagtahay in la galo. Beer-beelka ayaa inta badan laga helaa cufnaanta hoose ee meelaha fogfog, samaynta tirakoobka meelahan oo kale mid qaali ah oo aan waxtar lahayn. Waxaa intaas dheer xaaladaha cimilada aan la saadaalin karin ee Arctic High.

In kasta oo ay jiraan dhammaan dadaallada saynisyahannadu, tirada orso polar weligood si sax ah looma go'aamin karin. Tirada guud ee orso polar lama xisaabiyo, laakiin waa qiime la xisaabiyay oo ka yimid xogta la duubay, doorsoomayaasha iyo ixtimaalka. Sababtoo ah dadaalku waa mid aad u weyn, marar badan lama tiriyo oo xogtu waxay si dhakhso ah u noqotaa mid duug ah. Su'aasha ah intee in le'eg oo orso ah oo ku yaal Spitsbergen ayaa weli si aan caddayn looga jawaabin, inkastoo tirada saxda ah.

Xaqiijinta: Tirinta orsaha dacallada waa adag tahay. Tirooyinka orsada darafyadu waa qiyaas ku salaysan xogta sayniska. Tirakoobkii ugu dambeeyay ee la daabacay wuxuu dhacay Agoosto 2015 sidaas darteedna waa dhacay. (laga bilaabo Agoosto 2023)

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Sayniska: Sideed u tirisaa orso-beelka?

Sharaxaada soo socota waxay ku siinaysaa aragti yar oo ku saabsan hababka shaqada ee sayniska inta lagu guda jiro tirakoobka orso polar ee Svalbard ee 2015 (J. Aars et. al, 2019). Fadlan la soco in hababka loo soo bandhigay si aad u fudud oo macluumaadku sinaba loo dhamayn. Ujeedadu waa si fudud in la bixiyo fikrad ah sida ay u adag tahay waddadu si loo helo qiyaasaha kor lagu sheegay.

1. Tirada guud = tirooyinka dhabta ah

Meelaha si fudud loo maareyn karo, tirada xoolaha oo dhammaystiran waxaa diiwaangeliya saynisyahannadu iyadoo loo marayo tirinta dhabta ah. Tani waxay suurtogal u tahay, tusaale ahaan, jasiiradaha aadka u yaryar ama meel siman oo bangi ah, oo si sahlan loo arki karo. 2015, saynisyahannadu waxay shakhsi ahaan tiriyeen 45 orso polar ee Svalbard. 23 kale oo orso ah ayaa la arkay oo ay soo sheegeen dad kale oo ku nool Svalbard saynis yahannadu waxay awoodeen inay caddeeyaan in orso-dabixeedkan aan hore loo tirin iyaga. Intaa waxaa dheer, waxaa jiray 4 orso ah oo aan cidi si toos ah u arkin, laakiin waxay ku labisan yihiin qooriyeyaasha dayax-gacmeedka. Tani waxay muujisay inay ku sugnaayeen goobta daraasadda wakhtiga tirinta. Wadar dhan 68 orso ayaa la tiriyay iyadoo la isticmaalayo habkan gudaha xudduudaha Jasiiradaha Svalbard.

2. Xariiqda Gudbinta = Tirooyinka Dhabta ah + Qiyaasta

Khadadka waxaa lagu dhejiyaa masaafo gaar ah waxaana lagu duuliyaa diyaarad helicopter ah. Dhammaan bahashii lagu arkay jidka waa la tiriyaa. Waxa kale oo la xusay inta ay ka fogaayeen xariiqii hore loo qeexay. Laga soo bilaabo xogtan, saynisyahannadu waxay markaas qiyaasi karaan ama xisaabin karaan inta jeer ee bears ee ku yaal aagga.

Intii lagu guda jiray tirinta, 100 orso oo shaqsi ah, 14 hooyooyin ah oo leh hal dhal iyo 11 hooyooyin leh laba dhal. Masaafada toosan ee ugu badan waxay ahayd 2696 mitir. Saynis yahanadu waxa ay ogyihiin in bahashu dhulka ay ka fursad badan tahay in lagu ogaado orso ku jirta baraf baraf ah oo ay tirada ku hagaajiyaan. Isticmaalka habkan, 161 orso polar ayaa la tiriyay. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka loo eego xisaabaadkooda, saynisyahannadu waxay bixiyeen qiyaasta guud ee meelaha lagu daboolay xariiqda khadka sida 674 (95% CI = 432 - 1053) orso polar.

3. Doorsoomayaasha caawiya = qiyaas ku salaysan xog hore

Cimilada oo liidata awgeed, tirinta ma suuroobin meelaha qaar sidii qorshuhu ahaa. Sababta caadiga ah waa, tusaale ahaan, ceeryaamo qaro weyn. Sababtan awgeed, waxaa lagama maarmaan noqotay in la qiyaaso inta orso ee la ogaan lahaa haddii tirinta la qaadi lahaa. Xaaladdan oo kale, goobaha telemetry ee dayax-gacmeedka ee orso-dabiiciga ah ee ku qalabaysan gudbiye ayaa loo isticmaalay doorsoome caawiye ah. Qiyaasta saamiga ayaa la isticmaalay si loo xisaabiyo inta orso ee laga yaabo in la helo.

Helitaanka: Tirada guud ee meelaha xaddidan + tirinta & qiyaasta meelaha waaweyn iyadoo la adeegsanayo xariiqda khadka

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Halkee ayay dalxiisayaashu ku arkaan orso dacallada ah ee Svalbard?

In kasta oo ay jiraan orso cidhifyo ah oo ku yaal Svalbard marka loo eego shabakado badan oo si khaldan u sheegaya, jasiiradaha Svalbard ayaa wali ah meel aad u fiican oo loogu talagalay safari orso polar. Gaar ahaan safarka doon dheer ee Svalbard, dalxiisayaashu waxay haystaan ​​fursadda ugu fiican ee ay dhab ahaantii ku daawan karaan orso-beelka duurka.

Sida laga soo xigtay cilmi-baaris uu sameeyay machadka Polar Norway ee Svalbard laga bilaabo 2005 ilaa 2018, inta badan orso polar ayaa lagu arkay waqooyi-galbeed ee jasiiradda weyn ee Spitsbergen: gaar ahaan agagaarka Raudfjord. Meelaha kale ee heerka aragga sare leh waxay ahaayeen waqooyiga jasiiradda Nordaustlandet Wadada Hinlopen iyo sidoo kale Jasiiradda Barentsøya. Si ka soo horjeeda filashooyinka dalxiisayaal badan, 65% dhammaan aragtiyaha orso polar waxay ka dhaceen meelaha aan barafku daboolin. (O. Bengtsson, 2021)

Khibrad shaqsiyeed: Laba iyo toban maalmood gudahood Cruise on the Spirit Sea ee Svalbard, AGE™ waxa uu awooday in uu ilaaliyo sagaal orso oo polar bishii Agoosto 2023. In kasta oo baadhitaan xooggan nalagu sameeyay, haddana ma aannu helin hal orso oo dacal ah oo ku taal jasiiradda ugu weyn ee Spitsbergen. Ma aha xitaa Raudfjord si fiican loo yaqaan. Dabeecadda ayaa weli ah dabeecadda Arctic-ga Sarena maahan xayawaan. Marinka Hinlopen waxaa naloogu abaal-mariyey dulqaadkayaga: saddex maalmood gudahood waxaan ku aragnay siddeed orso oo polar ah oo ku yaal jasiirado kala duwan. Jaziirada Barentsøya waxa aanu ku aragnay orso tirsiyeedka 9. Waxa aanu ku aragnay badi orsoleyda dhul dhagax ah, mid doog cagaaran ku jira, laba baraf ah iyo mid xeeb baraf ah.

U laabo dulmarka

Hagaha safarka Svalbard • Xayawaanka Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Immisa orso polar ee Svalbard? • Ka daawo berka hore ee Svalbard

Ogeysiisyada & Xuquuqda daabacaada

Isha: Immisa orso ayaa ku taal Svalbard?