Polar bears a Svalbard: labari da gaskiya

Nawa polar bears akwai a Svalbard? Lokacin da ake samun wannan tambayar, ana iya samun irin waɗannan masu girma dabam akan layi cewa mai karatu yake mai daɗi: 300 polar bears da kuma mawuyacin baya. Sau da yawa ana cewa akwai berayen polar 1000 a Spitsbergen. Wani sanannen kamfanin jirgin ruwa ya rubuta: “Bisa ga Cibiyar Polar Norway, yawan beyar Svalbard a halin yanzu dabbobi 2600 ne.”

Kurakurai na rashin kulawa, kurakuran fassara, tunanin buri da rashin alheri har yanzu yaɗuwar tunanin kwafi da liƙa na iya zama sanadin wannan rikici. Kalmomi masu ban mamaki sun haɗu da takaddun ma'auni.

Kowane tatsuniya yana ɗauke da ƙwayar gaskiya, amma wane adadi ne daidai? Anan za ku iya gano dalilin da ya sa mafi yawan tatsuniyoyi ba gaskiya ba ne kuma nawa polar bears da gaske suke a Svalbard.

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Labari na 1: Akwai beyar polar fiye da mutanen Svalbard

Kodayake ana iya karanta wannan bayanin akai-akai akan layi, har yanzu ba daidai ba ne. Ko da yake yawancin tsibiran da ke cikin tsibiran Svalbard ba kowa ba ne, don haka da yawa ƙananan tsibiran a zahiri da ma'ana suna da beyar polar fiye da mazauna, wannan bai shafi babban tsibirin Svalbard ko dukan tsibiran ba.

Kusan mutane 2500 zuwa 3000 suna zaune a tsibirin Spitsbergen. Yawancinsu suna zaune a ciki dogon shekara, wanda ake kira birni mafi arewa a duniya. Kididdiga ta Norway ta ba da mazaunan Svalbard a farkon Janairu 2021: Dangane da wannan, ƙauyukan Svalbard na Longyearbyen, Ny-Alesund, Barentsburg da Pyramiden tare suna da ainihin mazaunan 2.859.

Tsaya Shin ba a sami beyar polar fiye da mutanen Spitsbergen ba? Idan kuna yi wa kanku wannan tambayar, to tabbas kun ji ko karanta cewa kusan berayen polar 3000 suna zaune a Svalbard. Idan haka ne, tabbas za ku yi gaskiya, amma wannan ma tatsuniya ce.

Nemo: Babu sauran berayen polar fiye da mutanen da ke zaune a Svalbard.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Labari na 2: Akwai berayen polar 3000 a Svalbard

Wannan lambar tana nan. Duk da haka, duk wanda ya kalli wallafe-wallafen kimiyya da sauri ya gane cewa wannan kuskuren kalmomi ne. Adadin nau'in berayen polar kusan 3000 ya shafi dukan yankin Tekun Barents, ba ga tsibiran Svalbard ba kuma ba kawai ga babban tsibirin Spitsbergen ba.

kasa Ursus maritimus (Kimanin Turai) na IUCN Red List of Barazana ana iya karantawa, misali: “ A Turai, an kiyasta yawan jama'ar Tekun Barents (Norway da Tarayyar Rasha) a kusan mutane 3.000."

Tekun Barents wani yanki ne na Tekun Arctic. Yankin Tekun Barents ya haɗa da ba kawai Spitsbergen ba, sauran tsibirin Svalbard da kuma yankin kankara a arewacin Spitsbergen, har ma da Franz Joseph Land da yankunan kankara na Rasha. Polar bears suna yin ƙaura lokaci-lokaci a kan fakitin kankara, amma da nisan nisa, ƙananan yuwuwar musayar ya zama. Canja wurin gaba dayan yawan jama'ar polar bear 1:1 zuwa Svalbard ba daidai bane.

Nemo: Akwai berayen polar kusan 3000 a yankin Tekun Barents.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Lambobi: Guda nawa ne da gaske a Svalbard?

A gaskiya ma, kawai nau'in polar bear 300 ne kawai ke rayuwa a cikin iyakokin tsibirin Svalbard, kusan kashi goma cikin dari na bears 3000 da aka ambata sau da yawa. Wadannan ba duka ba ne suke rayuwa a babban tsibirin Spitsbergen, amma suna yaduwa a cikin tsibirai da dama a cikin tsibiran. Don haka akwai ƙarancin ƙwanƙolin polar a kan Svalbard fiye da wasu gidajen yanar gizo da za ku yi imani da su. Duk da haka, masu yawon bude ido suna da dama sosai Kallon polar bears a Svalbard.

Nemo: Akwai nau'ikan berayen polar kusan 300 a cikin tsibiran Svalbard, wanda kuma ya haɗa da babban tsibirin Spitsbergen.

Bugu da ƙari, kusan nau'in polar bears 300 a cikin iyakokin Svalbard, akwai kuma beyar polar a cikin fakitin kankara a arewacin Svalbard. An kiyasta adadin waɗannan berayen polar bears a cikin fakitin kankara na arewa a kusan 700 polar bears. Idan kun ƙara duka dabi'u tare, zai zama fahimtar dalilin da yasa wasu kafofin ke ba da adadin 1000 polar bears don Svalbard.

Nemo: Kusan beyar polar 1000 suna zaune a yankin da ke kusa da Spitsbergen (Svalbard + fakitin kankara na arewa).

Bai ishe ku ba? Ba mu ma ba. A sashe na gaba za ku gano ainihin adadin berayen polar nawa ne a Svalbard da Tekun Barents bisa ga wallafe-wallafen kimiyya.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Gaskiya: Guda nawa ne ke zaune a Svalbard?

Akwai manyan ƙididdiga na polar bear guda biyu a cikin Svalbard a cikin 2004 da 2015: kowanne daga Agusta 01st zuwa Agusta 31st. A cikin shekaru biyun, jiragen ruwa da jirage masu saukar ungulu na binciken tsibiran tsibirin Svalbard da yankin kankara na arewa.

Ƙididdigar 2015 ta nuna cewa berayen polar 264 suna zaune a Svalbard. Koyaya, don fahimtar wannan lambar da kyau, kuna buƙatar sanin yadda masana kimiyya ke bayyana kansu. Idan ka karanta littafin da aka haɗa, ya ce "264 (95% CI = 199 - 363) bears". Wannan yana nufin cewa lamba 264, mai sauti daidai, ba adadi ba ne kwata-kwata, amma matsakaicin kiyasin da ke da yuwuwar kashi 95% daidai ne.

Ganowa: A cikin watan Agustan 2015, in faɗi a kimiyance daidai, akwai yuwuwar kashi 95 cikin ɗari cewa akwai tsakanin 199 da 363 polar bears a cikin iyakokin Svalbard Archipelago. Matsakaicin shine 264 polar bears ga Svalbard.

Wadannan su ne hujjojin. Ba ya samun daidai fiye da haka. Hakanan ya shafi berayen polar a cikin fakitin kankara na arewa. An buga matsakaita na 709 polar bears. Idan ka duba cikakken bayani a cikin wallafe-wallafen kimiyya, ainihin adadin yana ƙara ɗan canji kaɗan.

Nemo: A cikin watan Agusta 2015, tare da yuwuwar kashi 95, akwai tsakanin 533 da 1389 polar bears a duk yankin da ke kusa da Spitsbergen (yankin Svalbard + arewacin fakitin kankara). Matsakaicin yana haifar da jimlar ɓangarorin polar 973.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Gaskiya: Yawan berayen polar nawa ne a cikin Tekun Barents?

A cikin 2004, an faɗaɗa ƙididdige ƙididdiga na polar bear don haɗawa da Franz Josef Land da fakitin kankara na Rasha ban da Svalbard. Hakan ya sa a iya ƙididdige jimillar yawan beyar polar a cikin Tekun Barents. Abin takaici, hukumomin Rasha ba su ba da izini ga 2015 ba, don haka ba za a iya sake nazarin sashin Rasha na yankin rarraba ba.

Bayanai na ƙarshe game da dukan yawan yawan jama'a a cikin Tekun Barents sun fito ne daga 2004: matsakaicin da aka buga shine 2644 polar bears.

Nemo: Tare da yuwuwar kashi 95 cikin ɗari, yawan yawan jama'ar Tekun Barents a watan Agustan 2004 ya ƙunshi tsakanin 1899 da 3592 polar bears. An ba da ma'anar 2644 polar bears don Tekun Barents.

Yanzu ya bayyana a sarari inda manyan lambobin Svalbard ke yawo akan Intanet suka fito. Kamar yadda aka riga aka ambata, wasu mawallafa sunyi kuskuren canja wurin adadi ga dukan tekun Barents zuwa Svalbard 1: 1. Bugu da kari, matsakaita kusan 2600 polar bears galibi ana zagaye da karimci zuwa dabbobi 3000. Wani lokaci har ma mafi girman adadin kimar Barents Sea (3592 polar bears) ana ba da shi, ta yadda ba zato ba tsammani an lura da beyar polar 3500 ko 3600 ga Svalbard.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Nawa polar bears ne a duniya?

Don fayyace gaba ɗaya, ya kamata a ambaci halin da ake ciki na yawan jama'ar polar bear a duniya a taƙaice. Da farko, yana da ban sha'awa a san cewa akwai ƙaƙƙarfan ƙazamin polar bear guda 19 a duniya. Daya daga cikinsu yana zaune a yankin Tekun Barents, wanda kuma ya hada da Spitsbergen.

kasa Ursus maritimus IUCN Red List of Barazana nau'ikan 2015 An rubuta: “Takaita sabbin ƙididdiga na ƙasƙanci na 19 […] yana haifar da jimlar kusan 26.000 polar bears (95% CI = 22.000 –31.000).”

Ana tsammanin cewa akwai jimillar nau'in polar bears 22.000 zuwa 31.000 a duniya. Matsakaicin yawan jama'ar duniya shine berayen polar 26.000. Duk da haka, ga wasu ƙananan jama'a yanayin bayanan ba shi da kyau kuma ba a rubuta yawan yawan jama'a na Arctic Basin kwata-kwata. Don haka, dole ne a fahimci lambar a matsayin ƙididdigewa sosai.

Ganowa: Akwai ƙasƙanci na polar bear guda 19 a duniya. Akwai ƴan bayanai kaɗan don wasu ƙananan jama'a. Dangane da bayanan da ake da su, an kiyasta cewa akwai kusan 22.000 zuwa 31.000 polar bears a duniya.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Hankali: Shin akwai ƙarancin polar bears a Svalbard fiye da da?

Saboda tsananin farauta a ƙarni na 19 da 20, yawan beyar polar a Svalbard da farko sun ƙi sosai. Sai a shekarar 1973 ne aka rattaba hannu kan Yarjejeniyar Kare Polar Bears. Tun daga wannan lokacin, an kare beyar polar a yankunan Norwegian. Yawan jama'a ya murmure sosai kuma ya karu, musamman har zuwa 1980s. Don haka, a yau akwai berayen iyakacin duniya a Svalbard fiye da yadda ake da su.

Nemo: Ba a yarda a fara farautar Polar bears a yankunan Norwegian ba tun 1973. Shi ya sa jama'a suka farfaɗo kuma a yanzu an sami ƙarin berayen polar a Svalbard fiye da da.

Idan aka kwatanta sakamakon yawan beyar pola a Svalbard a cikin 2004 da 2015, adadin kuma ya bayyana ya ƙaru kaɗan a wannan lokacin. Duk da haka, karuwar ba ta da mahimmanci.

Yanzu ana fargabar cewa yawan beyar pola a Svalbard zai sake raguwa. Sabon abokin gaba shine dumamar yanayi. Barents Sea polar bears suna fuskantar mafi saurin asarar wuraren zama na kankara na duk 19 da aka sani a cikin Arctic (Laidre et al. 2015; Stern & Laidre 2016). Abin farin ciki, a lokacin ƙidayar jama'a a watan Agusta 2015 babu wata shaida da ta nuna cewa hakan ya riga ya haifar da raguwar yawan jama'a.

Sakamakon: Ya rage a gani ko ko yaushe adadin berayen polar a Svalbard zai ragu saboda dumamar yanayi. An san cewa kankarar teku na raguwa da sauri a cikin Tekun Barents, amma a cikin 2015 ba a sami raguwar adadin bear bear.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Canje-canje: Me yasa bayanan ba su fi daidai ba?

A gaskiya ma, ƙidayar polar bear ba shi da sauƙi haka. Me yasa? A gefe guda, kada ku manta cewa berayen polar suna da ban sha'awa mafarauta waɗanda kuma za su kai hari ga mutane. Ana buƙatar taka tsantsan na musamman da nisa mai karimci koyaushe. Fiye da duka, polar bears suna da kyan gani da kyau kuma yankin yana da girma, sau da yawa yana da rudani kuma wani lokacin yana da wahalar shiga. Ana samun ƙwanƙwasa ƙwanƙwasa sau da yawa a cikin ƙananan ɗimbin yawa a cikin wurare masu nisa, yin ƙidayar jama'a a irin waɗannan wuraren masu tsada da rashin inganci. An ƙara wa wannan yanayin yanayi maras tabbas na Babban Arctic.

Duk da kokarin da masana kimiyya suka yi, ba za a taba iya tantance adadin beyar polar ba. Ba a ƙidayar jimlar adadin polar bears, amma ƙimar ƙididdiga daga bayanan da aka yi rikodin, masu canji da yuwuwar. Saboda ƙoƙarin yana da girma sosai, ba a ƙidaya shi sau da yawa kuma bayanan da sauri ya zama tsofaffi. Tambayar nawa polar bears akwai a cikin Spitsbergen ya rage kawai a cikin amsa, duk da ainihin lambobi.

Ganewa: Ƙididdigan polar bear yana da wahala. Lambobin Polar bear kiyasi ne bisa bayanan kimiyya. Ƙididdiga na ƙarshe da aka buga ya faru a watan Agusta 2015 don haka ya riga ya ƙare. (har zuwa Agusta 2023)

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Kimiyya: Yaya ake kirga berayen polar?

Bayanin da ke gaba yana ba ku ɗan haske game da hanyoyin aikin kimiyya yayin ƙidayar ƙidayar polar bear a Svalbard a cikin 2015 (J. Aars et. al, 2019). Lura cewa an gabatar da hanyoyin a cikin sauƙi mai sauƙi kuma bayanin ba shi da iyaka. Maganar ita ce kawai don ba da ra'ayi game da yadda hanyar ke da wuyar samun ƙididdiga da aka bayar a sama.

1. Jima'i = Ƙididdigar Gaskiya

A cikin wuraren da ake iya sarrafa su cikin sauƙi, cikakken adadin dabbobin da masana kimiyya suka rubuta ta hanyar ƙidayar gaske. Wannan yana yiwuwa, alal misali, a kan ƙananan tsibirai ko a kan lebur, wuraren banki da ake iya gani cikin sauƙi. A cikin 2015, masana kimiyya da kansu sun ƙidaya berayen polar 45 a Svalbard. An lura da wasu nau'ikan berayen 23 kuma wasu mutane a Svalbard sun ba da rahoto kuma masana kimiyya sun iya tabbatar da cewa waɗannan polar bears ba su riga sun ƙidaya su ba. Bugu da kari, akwai berayen polar guda 4 wadanda babu wanda ya gani a raye, amma suna sanye da kwalaben tauraron dan adam. Wannan ya nuna cewa sun kasance a wurin binciken a lokacin ƙidayar. An ƙidaya jimlar polar bears 68 ta amfani da wannan hanyar a cikin iyakokin tsibirin Svalbard.

2. Layin Layi = Lambobi na Gaskiya + Ƙididdiga

Ana saita layuka a wasu tazara kuma ana tafiya da jirgi mai saukar ungulu. Ana kirga duk berayen da aka hange a kan hanya. An kuma lura da nisa daga layin da aka ayyana a baya. Daga wannan bayanan, masana kimiyya za su iya ƙididdigewa ko ƙididdige yawan berayen polar da ke yankin.

A lokacin kidayar, an gano berayen polar guda 100, uwaye 14 masu ‘ya’ya daya da uwaye 11 masu ‘ya’ya biyu. Matsakaicin nisa a tsaye shine mita 2696. Masanan kimiyya sun san cewa berayen da ke ƙasa suna da damar ganowa fiye da bears a cikin fakitin kankara kuma suna daidaita lambar daidai. Ta hanyar amfani da wannan hanyar, an ƙidaya ɓangarorin polar 161. Duk da haka, bisa ga lissafin su, masana kimiyya sun ba da jimillar ƙididdiga na yankunan da aka rufe ta hanyar layin layi kamar 674 (95% CI = 432 - 1053) polar bears.

3. Matsaloli masu taimako = kimanta bisa bayanan da suka gabata

Saboda rashin kyawun yanayi, ba a iya yin kirga a wasu wurare kamar yadda aka tsara. Dalili na gama gari shine, misali, hazo mai kauri. Saboda wannan dalili, ya zama dole a kimanta adadin berayen polar nawa ne za a gano idan an yi ƙidayar. A wannan yanayin, an yi amfani da wuraren telemetry na tauraron dan adam na polar bears sanye da na'urar watsawa azaman ma'auni na taimako. An yi amfani da ƙididdige ƙididdigewa don ƙididdige yawan beyar polar da ƙila aka samu.

Nemo: Jimlar ƙidayar a cikin iyakataccen yanki + ƙidaya & ƙididdigewa a cikin manyan yankuna ta hanyar layin layi + ƙididdigewa ta amfani da mabambantan taimako don wuraren da ba zai yiwu a ƙidaya = jimlar adadin polar bears

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

A ina masu yawon bude ido suke ganin berayen polar a Svalbard?

Ko da yake akwai ƙarancin polar bears a cikin Svalbard fiye da yawancin gidajen yanar gizon da ba su dace ba, tsibirin Svalbard har yanzu wuri ne mai kyau don safaris na polar bear. Musamman a kan tafiya mai tsawo a cikin jirgin ruwa a Svalbard, masu yawon bude ido suna da mafi kyawun damar kallon berayen polar a cikin daji.

A cewar wani bincike da Cibiyar Polar Norwegian ta Svalbard daga 2005 zuwa 2018, yawancin berayen polar sun kasance a arewa maso yammacin babban tsibirin Spitsbergen: musamman a kusa da Raudfjord. Sauran yankunan da ke da yawan gani sun kasance arewacin tsibirin Nordaustlandet Titin Hinlopen kazalika da Barentsøya Island. Sabanin yadda yawancin masu yawon bude ido ke fata, kashi 65% na duk abin da aka gani na polar bear ya faru a wuraren da ba a rufe kankara. (O. Bengtsson, 2021)

Kwarewa ta sirri: A cikin kwanaki goma sha biyu Cruise on the Sea Spirit a Svalbard, AGE™ ya sami damar kallon berayen polar tara a cikin Agusta 2023. Duk da bincike mai zurfi da aka yi, ba mu sami beyar polar ko guda ɗaya ba a babban tsibirin Spitsbergen. Ba ma a cikin sanannen Raudfjord ba. Yanayin ya kasance yanayi kuma Babban Arctic ba gidan zoo ba ne. A cikin mashigar Hinlopen an ba mu lada don haƙurin da muka yi: a cikin kwanaki uku mun ga berayen polar guda takwas a tsibirai daban-daban. A tsibirin Barentsøya mun hange polar bear mai lamba 9. Mun ga yawancin berayen a kan ƙasa mai duwatsu, ɗaya a cikin korayen ciyawa, biyu a cikin dusar ƙanƙara ɗaya kuma a bakin teku mai ƙanƙara.

Komawa zuwa bayyani

Jagorar tafiya Svalbard Dabbobin Arctic • Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) • Polar bear nawa ne a Svalbard? • Kalli berayen polar a Svalbard

Sanarwa & Haƙƙin mallaka

Tushen don: bears nawa ne a cikin Svalbard?